(a) The central factor of the period of world history which we are now passing (through) is
the rivalry between England and Germany. This rivalry must inevitably lead to an armed conflict between
them . . . (and) cannot in any case be confined to a duel between England and Germany alone . . . The
future Anglo-German war will be transformed into an armed conflict between the two groups of powers,
one with a German, the other with an English orientation. . .
The fundamental groupings in a future war are self-evident: Russia, France, and England, on the one
side; Germany, Austria, and Turkey, on the other. . . . It is more likely that other powers, too, will
participate in that war, depending upon circumstances as they may exist at the war's outbreak . . . Italy, if
she has any conception of her real interest, will not enter on the side of Germany. . .
. . . the struggle with Germany presents great difficulties for us and will require incalculable sacrifices. The war will not catch our opponent napping and the stage of his preparedness will probably exceed the most exaggerated of our expectations . . . The main burden of the war will undoubtedly fall on us, since England is hardly capable of large-scale participation in a continental war, while France, poor in manpower, will probably confine itself to strictly defensive tactics, in view of the enormous losses by which war will be attended under the present conditions of military technique . . . And what is more, one should not exclude the possibility of America or Japan entering [the war] on the side of Germany's opponents . .
Are we prepared for so stubborn a struggle as the future war of the European nations will undoubtedly prove to be? We must answer this question, without evasion, in the negative. . . . In this respect we must note, first of all, the insufficiency of our military supplies . . . since the procurement plans are still far from being fulfilled, owing to the low productivity of our factories. . . . (and) the blockade of the Baltic as well as the Black Sea will make impossible the importation from abroad of the defensive materials we lack. . . . The network of strategic railways is inadequate . . . Every war up till now has invariably been accompanied by something new in the realm of military technique, but the technical backwardness of our industries will not create favorable conditions for our adopting the new inventions. . .
(b) A struggle between Russia and Germany is profoundly undesirable for both sides, as involving a weakening a monarchical principle. It should not be forgotten that Russia and Germany are the representatives of the conservative principle in the civilized world, as opposed to the democratic principle, embodied in England . . . . one must foresee that . . a general European war is mortally dangerous both for Russia and Germany, no matter who wins. It is our firm conviction . . . that there must inevitably break out in the defeated country a social revolution which, by the very nature of things, will spread to the country of the victor. . . .
An especially favorable soil for social upheavals is found, of course, in Russia, where the masses undoubtedly profess the principles of an unconscious sort of socialism . . . any revolutionary movement will inevitable degenerate into a socialist movement . . . The peasant dreams of obtaining free a share of somebody else's land; the workman, of getting hold of the entire capital and profits of the manufacturer. . . . If these slogans are scattered far and wide . . and the government permits agitation along these lines, Russia undoubtedly will be flung into anarchy such as she suffered in the ever memorable period of troubles in 1905-1906. War with Germany would create exceptionally favorable conditions for such agitation. . . .
. . in the event of defeat, the possibility of which in a struggle with a foe like Germany cannot be overlooked, social revolution in its most extreme form is inevitable. . . . It will start with all disasters being attributed to the government. In the legislative institutions a bitter campaign against the government will begin, which will result in revolutionary agitation throughout the country. There will immediately ensue Socialist slogans--which alone are capable of . . rallying the masses--first the complete reapportionment of land and then the reapportionment of all valuables and property. The defeated army . . . will prove to be too demoralized to serve as a bulwark of law and order. The legislative institutions and the . . opposition parties . . . will be powerless to stem the rising popular tide . . and Russia will be flung into hopeless anarchy, the outcome of which cannot be foreseen.
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